Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, are facing a serious crisis. The army is shrinking, soldiers are quitting, and the country is struggling to recruit new personnel. Meanwhile, a potential Russian threat to NATO is looming by 2029. Alarm bells are ringing in Berlin.

With only 182,000 active personnel, Germany needs around 460,000 troops to meet its defense requirements. To fill this major gap, the government is working on a new system based on voluntary military service. However, experts warn that this plan is risky and unlikely to succeed.

The decline of the Bundeswehr is truly shocking. In the past year, more soldiers left the army than joined it. Moreover, one-third of new recruits dropped out during training. Decades of downsizing have pushed military bases to remote areas, erasing the army from the public’s daily life.

Recruitment efforts have often backfired. A 2018 advertisement at a gaming convention was slammed as “disgusting” for targeting teens. In the city of Zika, officials banned Bundeswehr ads, citing a commitment to peace — though the courts later overturned that decision.

Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the coalition government led by Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats has unveiled a high-stakes plan to halt the Bundeswehr’s decline.

The new plan draws inspiration from Sweden’s “total defense” model. All 18-year-old males will receive a mandatory questionnaire assessing their fitness and willingness to serve. Women may opt in voluntarily. However, enlistment will remain optional. Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius described the initiative as a “game-changer.” “This service will rebuild our armed forces,” he declared in Brussels last week.

Still, with no guarantee of how many will sign up, skepticism is growing. The numbers are staggering. General Carsten Breuer has called for 100,000 new soldiers immediately and 460,000 in the long term — including reservists and veterans — to secure Germany’s defenses.

But the disconnect runs deep. Since mandatory conscription was abolished in 2011, the military has faded from public consciousness. As a result, the government’s goals may seem more like wishful thinking. And the 2029 deadline is rapidly approaching.

NATO and German intelligence have warned that Russia could be capable of attacking Allied territory by then — a chilling prospect. The new system, while officially voluntary, is seen as a fragile compromise. Bundeswehr University professor Carlo Masala warns: “If Germany delays, it will be too late.”

As Berlin gambles on volunteers, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Failure could weaken NATO’s collective defense and leave Germany dangerously exposed. With public skepticism, a fading military presence, and the clock ticking fast, the question remains: Can Germany rally its youth before disaster strikes?