The European Central Bank (ECB) has released the results of its 2024 fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters. According to the survey, annual harmonized inflation in the Eurozone is projected to be 2.4% for this year, and 1.9% for both 2025 and 2026.
Compared to the third-quarter survey results, the inflation forecast for the final quarter remains unchanged. However, there was a 0.1 percentage point downward revision for next year’s forecast.
The survey’s long-term average inflation projections remained steady at 2%.
Participants in the survey forecasted that the Eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates would be 0.7% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025, and 1.4% for 2026.
A downward revision of 0.1 percentage point was observed for the 2025 growth forecast compared to the previous survey.
The ECB attributed this revision primarily to expectations of weaker growth in the second half of this year, which is anticipated to have a dampening effect on next year’s growth.
The long-term average GDP growth forecast remained unchanged at 1.3%.
Estimates for the average unemployment rate were also provided, with forecasts of 6.5% for both 2024 and 2025. The rate is expected to decrease to 6.4% in 2026 and remain at that level in the long term.
The ECB conducted the Survey of Professional Forecasters from October 1-3, with 56 professionals participating in the study.
Economists’ forecasts are closely monitored by policymakers and are considered a significant factor in shaping monetary policy.
The ECB’s Governing Council expects inflation in the Eurozone, which stood at 1.7% in September, to rise in the coming months.
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